A scientific article entitled “Numerical analysis of factors, pace and intensity of the corona virus (COVID-19) epidemic in Poland” written by Piotr A. Kowalski, Aleksander Konior and Marcin Szwagrzyk from Airly along with Jolanta Kiełpińska and Maciej Kusy has been published “Ecological Informatics” journal and is available online.
This article was created as part of a wide collaboration of scientists affiliated with the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow, the Jagiellonian University, West Pomeranian University of Technology, Rzeszów University of Technology and our specialists in the Data Science department. The manuscript awaits the insightful opinions of the reviewers of the renowned Ecological Informatics – an International Journal on Computational Ecology and Ecological Data Science. It is one of Elsevier’s dominant ecology journals. It belongs to the journals of the so-called the first quartile (Q1) according to the SCOPUS database, and in Poland the Ministry of Science and Higher Education rated it on its own list at 100 points.
In the article, we analyzed two different, interrelated phenomena regarding the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland: diagnosed cases of disease and the total excess death in 2020 compared to 2019, and their relationship with factors that could have influenced the course of the epidemic. Among the many analyzed factors, there were parameters of spatial units such as, for example, population density, demographic factors, distance from national borders and air pollution with particulate matter. An unprecedented solution in the scientific literature was to conduct analyzes for various types of administrative division units (poviats called as districts, NUTS3 units and voivodeships).
As part of the research, it turned out that smaller spatial units (e.g. districts) are better to study this phenomenon than larger units (e.g. voivodeships) – because studying the relationship between air pollution and COVID-19 in the scale of large spatial units leads to the overestimation of the coefficients correlation and can lead to hasty, wrong conclusions. However, carrying out analyzes on the scale of smaller units requires the use of a dense measurement network to provide high-resolution air pollution data.
One of the most important results of the analyzes is the conclusion that air pollution is the factor having the greatest impact on both the number of cases and the number of excess deaths in 2020, compared to 2019.
You can read the article in full HERE.
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